China and Russia are lucrative enemies, US policy has helped bring two neighbours closer together. However, Beijing's ability and willingness to reduce the impact of a decisive break with the West is limited.
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When Vladimir Putin meets Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, he can be confident of a warm welcome. Expect a headline-grabbing gas pipeline announcement, an easing of cash transactions, and a statement of solidarity and support sprinkled with slightly stagnant photography opportunities. Chinese leaders need guests to draw attention at the crowded Winter Olympics. The Russian president faces the potential for crippling due to economic sanctions from the West and needs an economic and political lifeline.
This is an important meeting. She has continued to virtualize diplomacy through fashion, and Putin has largely avoided travelling abroad. But it's not a "continuous friendship", but a timely demonstration of realism, a far lesser step towards a strong Western opposition alliance. Will Beijing support Moscow's decision to withdraw from Ukraine as a result of military aggression, as well as heavy economic sanctions and political isolation? One point, yes. Can it replace the relationship with the West? It seems much less likely.
That was right when President Putin wrote this week that his partnership had reached an "unprecedented level." US foreign policy has created something in common and is accelerating the dynamics already on the train. But the pain of the aunt in the relationship is often heard, it's also complicated. China, which is more bargaining than the Kremlin, is an economic powerhouse that climbs with security ambitions and is certainly not the "younger brother" of the Soviet era. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, China has been cautious, so China has restrictions on its actions.
Moscow and Beijing support each other's self-fulfilment as loud worthy powers on the world stage. They have a somewhat complementary economy and are dictators who oppose the "colour revolution" as they did in Kazakhstan last month. Their propaganda outlets create a story that resembles the collapse and turmoil of the West. At this week's UN Security Council, Russia accused the United States of "tension, rhetoric and heightened tension" against Ukraine. China supports this view: "Russia has repeatedly stated that it has no plans to take military action, and has made it clear that Ukraine does not need war," said Chang, China's UN ambassador. Jun said. concern? "
However, while Beijing is willing to support Moscow in New York with irrational remarks, political alliances are not always so sensitive. China's concern about territorial integrity means that it is not aware of the independence of the separatist Georgian region of Abkhazia or South Ossetia, as Russia's ally Venezuela annexed Crimea, but Moscow is in the South China Sea. You didn't have to occupy a position. In the Arctic, Russia is willing to accept China's investment but suffers from China's "close to the Arctic" attitude. As Gabuyev told me, the two never conflict with each other, but they are not always together.
But what about the multi-billion dollar question of whether China can financially protect Russia? Should Putin impose dramatic western sanctions on Ukraine? Can Beijing become Russia's economically? Here, there is good reason for Moscow to hesitate, starting with the Bank of China hesitating to get involved in US sanctions.
Zhongnanhai sees Russia as a reliable energy partner and is competing with Saudi Arabia for the top position as an oil supplier. From January to November last year, China's contribution to Russia's foreign trade was about 20%, up from about 10% before Putin's 2014 Crimean adventure. However, Europe is still a very big partner and there are worrisome contradictions in the details it can offer. Russia will break. Over 70% of China's imports from Russia are energy and minerals. Meanwhile, China exports electrical and industrial equipment. China has made significant investments in alternative raw material suppliers. There are far fewer in Russia than in Europe.
Then there is the lack of enthusiasm among Chinese companies for the Russian market due to the weakness of the population, economic stagnation, and increasingly hostile attitudes towards foreigners. Nigel Gold-Davis of the International Institute for Strategic Studies suggests that foreign direct investment, which relies on long-term efforts in soil, is a useful barometer and the news is not good. He said Russia accounts for only 2% of China's foreign investment inflows. There are high-value investments like Yamal LNG, but non-symbolic investments face all the friction and limitations that keep others stuck.
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